Hospital

Alberta COVID-19 Hospitalizations

A private citizens project of presenting Alberta Government data to allow citizens to establish their own opinions.

The Government's own data seemingly disproves much of the narrative. It also presents holes in their messaging and in the failure to justify their actions.

Data visualizers have been created to allow for the analysis of AB Government data. Take the time to analyze it for yourself. Does it align with the narrative we hear every day?

Decide for yourself.

What's here?

This is not a COVID conspiracy theory site. This is a collection of Alberta Government & Alberta Health Services (AHS) data organized in a manner to draw attention to the details. Details generally omitted or overlooked.

The definition of a hospitalization. It is not what's assumed.

AHS hospital data says otherwise. Bed utilization was down.

How bad were the ICU capacities? History tells a story.

The correlation between daily reports and total values. Which is right?

Excuses and failures. After 13+ months still no data to validate actions.

Government projections. Flu reports. Past AB Govt. pandemic learnings.

 

What is a COVID-19 hospitalization?

Hospitalizations continue to be one metric gauging performance. It’s also one lacking context.

What is a COVID hospitalization? - A definition not posted or easily accessible.

Hospitalization Definition.png

Did you read that?

A COVID hospitalization is an admission for any reason while having a COVID diagnosis in the last 30-days or if they happen to test positive while in hospital.

Lying by omission

Each day the hospitalization metric implies a said number of people are receiving treatment for COVID-19. This is not the case. We actually don’t know who is and who isn’t.

Each day, deaths in the last 24-hours are provided. The timing and placement of this statistic imply these individuals passed away within the last day. This is not the case. There is no timeline to when they died. It’s only when it was reported to AHS. They could have passed days, weeks, or even months ago.

Fact-check Deena yourself. Daily statistics are posted here. You can see all dates of death. Export 'Case data' to Excel and sort the deaths by month.

 

Was acute care at risk of overload?

Officials continue to use hospital capacity as the justification for restrictions and lockdowns.

A careful look at AHS hospital data obtained under FOIP DOES NOT support this narrative.

Avg. Acute Bed Utilization

During the pandemic?    88%

March 2020 - March 2021

Before the pandemic?  95%

January 2016 - February 2020

 

Were the ICUs at the brink?

The justification of restrictions and government actions is said to be in the interest of protecting the healthcare system and ICU capacities. This was again echoed as justification on May 04, 2021, for the fourth wave of restrictions and business closures. It's to "protect the healthcare system."

Second wave capacities slightly above average?

A graph shared by the Alberta Government, intended to demonstrate the ICU capacity strain over the second wave, indicates a marginal increase over the three-year average.

Chart 2 - ICU Admissions found on Alberta.ca indicates an average ICU capacity of just over 150 admissions.

On April 08, 2020, AHS committed to increasing capacity to beyond 1,000 beds. Yet, the graph represents something around 50 beds of additional capacity.

Alberta COVID ICU Capacity

Click the image to enlarge.

2020 ICU capacities the lowest in five years?

The Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms recently sourced ICU admission data from AHS under FOIP. The results of the data suggest that the ICU admissions were the lowest they have been in five years.

2020 ICU admissions appear to be the lowest across all health regions.

What happened to the plan to increase capacity?

During the April 08, 2020 update, the Government issued plans to increase the ICU capacity by 1,081 beds. The slide deck from this presentation is here. Slide 22.

Hospital plans.png
 

Data Visualizer Data Source

Source is Alberta.ca

Alberta.ca, Table 3 provides hospitalization, ICU, and death metrics for all age groups. It is found here
https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#severe-outcomes

Data Model

Table 3 is a static table. The values are recorded each week starting on May 18, 2020.

The week-to-week differences in cases, hospitalizations, and ICU metrics form the calculation for the weekly values.

This.

 

These.

Cases vs Hospitalizations

The data visualizations are best viewed on a desktop/tablet device.

Analyze the cases and hospitalizations among age groups.

Who makes up the cases?

What is the breakdown of total hospital admissions between age groups?

How many cases are hospitalized of a specific age group?

Source: Alberta.ca - Sever Outcomes Table 3 - Recorded each week May 18, 2020, forward.

 

Who is in the Hospital?

The data visualizations are best viewed on a desktop/tablet device.

A breakdown of hospital and ICU admissions by age group.

Who makes up the hospital admissions? Who enters the ICU?

Left: Breakdown of Hospital admissions   | Middle: Hospital & ICU admissions vs case count   | Right: Breakdown of ICU admissions.

Source: Alberta.ca - Sever Outcomes Table 3 - Recorded each week May 18, 2020, forward.

 

Admissions per 100 Cases

The data visualizations are best viewed on a desktop/tablet device.

A visual representation of hospital and ICU admissions per 100 cases by age group.

Evaluate the rate of admission week-over-week. Select different age groups to see their admission rate.

Source: Alberta.ca - Sever Outcomes Table 3 - Recorded each week May 18, 2020, forward.

 

What are the numbers?

There is ZERO correlation between the daily briefing of current hospitalizations and the values tallied within the Total Hospitalization Table - Table 3. For example:

February 14

356 current hospitalizations

58 current ICU

5,679 total hospitalization count

924 total ICU count

February 15

365 current hospitalizations (+9)

56 current ICU (-2)

5,701 total hospitalization count (+22)

925 total ICU count (+1)

February 16

370 current hospitalizations (+5)

60 current ICU (+4)

5,727 total hospitalization count (+26)

930 total ICU count (+5)

February 17

362 current hospitalizations (-8)

55 current ICU (-5)

5,745 total hospitalization count (+18)

935 total ICU count (+5)

February 18

352 current hospitalizations (-10)

55 current ICU (--)

5,758 total hospitalization count (+13)

935 total ICU count (--)

February 19

336 current hospitalizations (-16)

51 current ICU (-4)

5,774 total hospitalization count (+16)

939 total ICU count (+4)

February 20

321 current hospitalizations (-15)

53 current ICU (-2)

5,787 total hospitalization count (+13)

939 total ICU count (--)

February 21

324 current hospitalizations (+3)

53 current ICU (--)

5,800 total hospitalization count (+13)

942 total ICU count (+3)

Did you catch the math?

Current hospitalizations increased by 17 during the week. Yet, 121 was added to the total count.

Current ICU increased by 04 and a total of 18 was added to the count.

Does this really mean at least 104 people spent less than a day in the hospital? Or that at least 14 people spent less than a day in the ICU?

This same inconsistency exists today - watch the reports and compare for yourself.

Highlights are here. Table 3 - Total Counts are here.

 

Where is the sector-specific transmission data?

With the May 04, 2021 imposed personal restrictions and business closures, there is still no publicly available transmission data to justify the actions. In the prosecution of their Health Orders, the Government admits to not having evidence available to put before the courts to justify their position.

To date, no data has been provided to validate the measures.

Only excuses and deflection.

The following timeline is an example of this.

Dec 12.

"While nobody wants to temporarily close down businesses, the Government’s decision was made based on the best scientific advice from health experts on what was required to preserve the healthcare system during a time of rising cases,"

 Christine Myatt, press secretary for Jason Kenney's office

CTV News | December 12, 2020

UCP MLA appeals to Kenney and cabinet to keep gyms, hair salons and massage therapists open

Jan. 14

"Personal wellness business may reopen by appointment only…now we have made these decisions very carefully…these measures were eased based on the expertise and the advice of our Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Hinshaw."

 Tyler Shandro - Health Minister

January 14, 2021 Alberta Update Covid-19

Jan. 20

Kevin Nimmock CTV Calgary – "Why isn’t sector-specific data available to the public and wouldn’t it be easier for you to justify restrictions if people knew the reasoning behind your decisions for things like keeping gyms closed and restaurants?"

"We have had the request for sector-specific data frequently and we are working to put together a summary…we will be making that available when it is complete in the coming weeks."

Hinshaw_edited.png

Deena Hinshaw 

January 20, 2021 Alberta Update Covid-19

Mar. 17

Julia Wong Global News – “...I also wanted to follow up about sector-specific transmission data...where exactly do things stand in where cases are being transmitted and when can we expect the full data to be released?

"We have been working with our analytics team on that as well as many other pieces of work that need to be done...anywhere where someone is infectious and people are not distanced and masked there’s an opportunity for spread…when we let our guard down COVID spreads.”

Hinshaw_edited.png

Deena Hinshaw 

March 17, 2021 Alberta Update Covid-19

Mar. 26

"There is no word on when sector-specific transmission data will be released Alberta Health said, in response to an inquiry about a timeline Thursday, that work is underway."

Apr. 16

"The government will not be required to produce scientific evidence in support of Dr. Hinshaw’s orders. Government lawyers told the Court that the Alberta Government could not produce any scientific evidence in support of Dr. Hinshaw’s orders in time for the May 3 trial."

Court permits Government to avoid producing Dr. Hinshaw’s evidence

Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms | April 16, 2021

Apr. 27

"There is no one source or sector that is driving this spread that we’re seeing. It would be simpler if there were just one cause.  Instead, the virus is spreading through all of us, and the many in-person get-togethers...that is why public health measures are in place for a wide range of sectors and why we all must continue to limit in-person interactions as much as possible."

Deena Hinshaw - Chief Medical Officer of Health

Alberta Update on COVID-19 | April 27, 2020

May 06

"Cases have risen to the point that we cannot simply target one sector or group. Whether it is social gatherings, faith services, aesthetics locations or fitness classes – each activity involves Albertans mingling in person, and risks exposure to the virus."

Deena Hinshaw - Chief Medical Officer of Health

Alberta Update on COVID-19 | May 06, 2020

May 09

"In a statement Friday, Alberta Health spokesperson Tom McMillan said the ministry doesn’t have a breakdown by sector of viral transmission, so couldn’t provide data on the spread of COVID-19 in settings like hair salons...McMillan said the decisions on restrictions were made based on “14 months of evidence in Alberta, across Canada and around the world.”

 

Additional Data & Sources

Government of Alberta - COVID-19 Modelling

COVID-19 modelling provided by the Province.

April 08, 2020 Modelling (Slide 12+): An early projection of hospitalizations based on a projection of 800,000 infections. Included is a plan to increase acute care and ICU capacities.

April 28, 2020 Modelling: Updated modelling to hospitalization and ICU projections.

January 25, 2021 COVID Update: New projections taking into account the variants and their projected impact on the healthcare system.

Interactive Covid-19 Dashboards

Additional Alberta-owned COVID-19 data sources exist. These sources provided further granularity into Alberta's metrics.

Government of Alberta Seasonal Influenza Reports

The Government of Alberta generates an influenza report every season. These reports provide valuable insights into the flu season experience, including hospitalizations, infection rates, and mortality.

Government of Alberta - Pandemic H1N1

Two government-produced reports provide an in-depth analysis of the impacts and outcomes of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

 

Contact your MLA

If you have questions or concerns about the latest road map for restrictions or the Government's pandemic plan, CALL your MLA and voice your interests.

Do not email. CALL THEM!